Archax Weekly Market Update, Dec 8, 2025

Crypto enters the new week in better shape, with Bitcoin trading around $92,000 and Ethereum near $3,100, up roughly 7% and 14% respectively from last week’s lows. Positioning has somewhat reset and sentiment is stabilising, but the market is still waiting for a decisive catalyst. With a major macro event on deck and institutional demand accelerating, this week has the potential to set the tone for the remainder of the year.

The main macro event this week is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. Markets assign an 87 percent probability to a 25-basis point cut, with the remainder on a pause, but the committee itself is sharply divided. Several regional Fed presidents have argued that services inflation remains too high to justify another cut, while others point to a cooling labour market as reason to provide additional insurance now. Recent polling suggests markets should expect at least two Fed members to vote against the majority decision at this week’s meeting, with a material chance of three or more. That level of division would be unusually high and underscores how uncertain the Fed is about the trajectory of the economy. The signal is unlikely to be clean, but unless growth weakens sharply, the broader policy direction still favours easier conditions.

Institutional demand continues to deepen against this backdrop. Vanguard has reversed its August stance and will now offer crypto ETF access to 50 million clients, a significant shift from one of the industry’s dominant asset managers. Goldman Sachs is also expanding its presence through its $2 billion acquisition of Innovator, which brings a Bitcoin ETF into its product suite. One firm continuing to signal strong conviction is Strategy. Following last week’s announcement of a $1.44 billion reserve to cover dividends without selling Bitcoin, the company has now acquired an additional 10,624 BTC, lifting its holdings to 660,624 BTC. And in the Ethereum market, BitMine, the largest ETH treasury holder, disclosed the purchase of 138,452 ETH, roughly $450 million worth. Together, these moves reinforce the view that strategic, long-term buyers remain active even through volatility.

From here, the focus returns to price confirmation. For Bitcoin, the key levels remain a daily close above $94,000 and, ideally, a reclaim of the major psychological threshold at $100,000. Without that, the risk of a fall toward $75,000 remains possible

With macro easing likely and institutional balance sheets leaning further in, the next major move will likely be driven by Bitcoin itself. If price can break out, the market finally has the foundations for a trend. If it can’t, we stay in the chop. This week will tell us which path is opening.