Archax Weekly Market Update, Feb 23, 2026

Markets open the week under pressure, with Bitcoin slipping below $65,000 in early Asia trade as tariff volatility once again unsettles global risk sentiment. The move briefly pushed BTC toward $64,000, while Ether fell more than 5%. With CNY thinning liquidity across parts of Asia price action has been amplified, leaving positioning fragile around key technical levels.

The catalyst was fresh uncertainty around US trade policy. After a Supreme Court ruling struck down elements of President Trump’s emergency tariff authority, US officials said existing trade agreements would remain intact, only for Trump to indicate he would lift the global tariff rate from 10% to 15%. The dollar and US equity futures weakened, reinforcing the sense that macro policy swings are once again driving cross-asset flows.

For the UK the implications are significant. Having secured a 10% reciprocal rate, Britain risks losing that relative advantage if a universal 15% tariff is imposed. Trade specialists estimate the shift could add billions in additional costs to UK exporters, affecting tens of thousands of firms beyond previously exempted sectors. At a time when domestic growth remains uneven, renewed trade friction adds further strain.

Stress is also surfacing beyond public markets. In the US, attention has turned to the private credit sector after Blue Owl restricted withdrawals in one of its funds, reigniting debate around liquidity terms in the $1.8 trillion market. Shares of several alternative asset managers fell sharply, and comparisons to past credit-cycle dislocations have resurfaced. While not systemic at this stage, the episode underscores how quickly confidence can shift in non-bank finance when volatility rises.

The next major test for risk appetite comes midweek, when Nvidia reports earnings. The chipmaker (now roughly 7% of the S&P 500) is expected to post another strong quarter, with revenue forecast to jump 67% year-on-year. More important than the headline numbers will be guidance for 2026 and beyond. Signals from its supply chain and hyperscaler customers remain firm, but the stock has moved sideways for six months and is viewed as under owned relative to its index weight. A decisive reaction could set the tone for broader equity markets and by extension, high-beta assets like crypto.

Recent macro data adds to the cautious tone. US growth slowed sharply to an annualised 1.4% last quarter, below expectations, while Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey showed US dollar exposure at its lowest level since the series began in 2012, suggesting political and policy uncertainty are weighing on global positioning. In the UK, inflation eased to 3%, its slowest pace in ten months, potentially giving the Bank of England greater flexibility at upcoming meetings.

Within crypto, key Bitcoin levels remain in focus. $65,000 is being watched as immediate support, with $60,000 the next area if selling accelerates. A move back above $70,000 would be needed to stabilise near-term sentiment. For now, the asset class appears to be trading in line with broader macro dynamics rather than on crypto-specific catalysts.

Taken together, markets remain reactive. Trade uncertainty, policy volatility and emerging stress in parts of private capital are combining to keep risk appetite contained. For UK-based investors in particular, external developments from US tariffs to global tech earnings are proving decisive. Until clarity improves and volatility subsides, downside tests are likely to come faster than upside momentum can rebuild.