Archax Weekly Market Update, Mar 02, 2026

Markets open the week in full risk-management mode after the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, triggering immediate retaliation across the Gulf and injecting a fresh geopolitical risk premium into global assets.

The escalation has pushed energy markets sharply higher. Brent crude surged as much as 13% intraday, its largest jump since the early-2022 Ukraine shock, as traders assessed the risk to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the transit point for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. Estimates suggest a full closure could see prices spike toward $100+ levels. Tanker traffic has slowed, reinforcing supply concerns even without a formal shutdown.

Broader markets reacted swiftly. Asian equities fell, US futures moved lower, and haven assets rallied. Gold climbed toward $5,360, Treasuries were bid, and the dollar strengthened against most major peers. The early tone reflects a “haven-first” repositioning shift, though there is not yet evidence of systemic panic. The key variable is duration: if disruption proves prolonged, the oil shock risks feeding into global inflation expectations at a time when valuations across equities and credit were already elevated.

That fragility is notable given how last week ended. Nvidia delivered another exceptional quarter, with revenue up 73% year-on-year to $68 billion and guidance pointing to $78 billion next quarter. In previous cycles, results of that scale would have driven a decisive equity rally. Instead, the reaction was muted, highlighting growing investor scepticism around the AI trade despite continued hyperscaler spending.

For the UK the geopolitical dimension is more direct. Keir Starmer confirmed that Britain has allowed the US to use UK bases, including Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford, for the limited purpose of destroying Iranian missile depots, while stressing that the UK is not formally joining offensive strikes. British jets are already operating defensively in the region. With approximately 200,000 UK nationals in the Middle East the government has framed the decision as protective, in reality it ties the UK more visibly into the conflict’s trajectory.

Within crypto, price action has mirrored broader risk assets. Bitcoin briefly held early gains before drifting back toward the mid-$60,000s, trading in line with equity futures rather than behaving as a traditional haven. The move reinforces a familiar pattern: in the initial phase of geopolitical shocks, crypto has tended to respond as a high-beta macro asset. Should oil remain elevated and inflation expectations rise, volatility across digital assets is likely to stay closely linked to cross-asset flows rather than crypto-specific catalysts.

The central question now is whether this remains a contained strike-and-retaliation cycle or evolves into a sustained regional conflict. Until credible signals of de-escalation emerge, cross-asset positioning is likely to remain defensive, with oil, gold, the dollar and broader risk sentiment setting the tone across markets, crypto included.