Archax Weekly Market Update, Nov 7, 2025

Crypto sold off sharply this week. Bitcoin is down roughly 7% from last Friday and briefly slipped below $100k before reclaiming it. Ethereum is down around 14%, now sitting near $3.3k. Sentiment has flipped back toward fear, and liquidity remains thin across the majors.

This comes despite a macro backdrop that should, in theory, be supportive. As we previously discussed, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points last week and signalled that quantitative tightening is nearing its end. The Bank of England also held rates at 4% and acknowledged that inflation has likely peaked. Meanwhile, US-China trade discussions took a more constructive turn, easing one of the main geopolitical overhangs. Put simply, the macro environment is improving, but that strength is not yet flowing into risk assets.

Bitcoin ETF flows have been negative almost every day from the 29th of October to the 5th of November, which has weighed on price. Yesterday broke that streak, with roughly 240 million dollars of net inflows into BTC ETFs, suggesting some investors are buying the dip. At the same time, stablecoin supply has increased by more than 600 million dollars between the 4th and 6th of November. That indicates capital is entering the crypto system, but it is sitting on the sidelines rather than rotating into spot.

For the market to stabilise, we would likely need to see ETF inflows hold for several sessions and stablecoin balances begin to convert into spot buying. If that happens, the macro backdrop is supportive enough for crypto to catch up. If it doesn’t, the market may continue to slide while capital stays parked on the sidelines.

Nothing is fundamentally broken here, but belief is thin. Flows need to turn for momentum to return. The next few weeks will show whether capital steps back in or stays sidelined. To prevent a move further lower, a weekly close above $100k is key.