Crypto markets have started the week on the front foot, with Bitcoin climbing toward the $75,000 level as traders navigate a volatile macro backdrop shaped by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and surging energy prices.
Bitcoin rose as much as 3.7% on Monday to trade above $73,000, with Ether, Solana and XRP also posting strong gains. Despite the geopolitical turbulence, Bitcoin has actually outperformed several traditional safe-haven assets this month, rising around 12.5% while gold has fallen roughly 4.9%.
Institutional demand appears to be returning as well. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $763 million in net inflows last week, marking a third consecutive week of positive flows. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for the majority of those purchases, suggesting conviction buying rather than short-term speculation.
Some analysts say Bitcoin has recently begun behaving more like a macro hedge during geopolitical stress. If tensions ease and energy markets stabilise, the next key level for traders is a potential break above $75,000. However, if the conflict drags on, volatility could return and prices could revisit lower levels closer to the $60,000 region.
Interestingly, longer-term indicators suggest the broader downturn in crypto markets may already be entering its later stages. Several historical cycle metrics tracked by fund managers, including the MVRV Z-Score and the 200-week moving average, place Bitcoin’s high-probability accumulation zone roughly between $45,000 and $60,000. With the asset already rebounding from February lows near $60,000, some investors argue most of the drawdown may now be behind us.
Beyond crypto markets, macro developments remain firmly in focus. Oil prices surged above $100 following the escalation of the Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, pushing inflation concerns back to the forefront. While crude has since eased slightly amid diplomatic discussions and calls to reopen shipping routes, markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the region.
That uncertainty arrives during a crucial week for global monetary policy. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are all set to announce interest-rate decisions. With labour markets cooling but inflation still elevated, (and energy prices rising again) policymakers face a difficult balancing act between supporting growth and containing price pressures.
Meanwhile, stress continues to surface in parts of the crypto industry. Chicago-based brokerage and trading platform BlockFills filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this week following months of market turmoil and liquidity pressures across digital asset firms.
For now, crypto markets appear to be stabilising alongside broader risk assets. But with geopolitical tensions, central bank decisions and energy markets all in flux, volatility across both traditional and digital markets is likely to remain elevated in the week ahead.