Crypto begins December on unstable footing after a sharp sell-off pushed Bitcoin down to around $86,500 and Ether to roughly $2,800. Market depth is still thin, but there are early signs that capital is returning. Between 25 and 28 November, Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined $221.2 million of net inflows, and stablecoin supply has increased by $3.3 billion over the past week. The bounce in flows contrasts with the price action, which remains fragile after a run of liquidations across Asian hours and a broader wobble in global risk markets.
A key pressure point has been the growing focus on Strategy Inc. which holds roughly $55 billion of Bitcoin. As Bitcoin has sold off, its mNAV has drifted toward uncomfortable levels, raising fears that the company may need to sell part of its holdings. CEO Phong Le acknowledged that Strategy would sell Bitcoin to fund dividend payments if mNAV fell below 1x, though only as a last resort. To steady nerves, today the company announced the creation of a $1.44 billion USD reserve to cover dividend and interest obligations whilst also confirming its Bitcoin reserve has now increased to 650,000 BTC. Even so, uncertainty remains: Strategy’s shares fell more than 5 percent in pre-market trading, and investors are watching closely for any signs that the firm may need to adjust its strategy if prices continue to weaken.
Looking further ahead, the macro environment for 2026 is shaping up in a way that has often been supportive for risk assets. Fiscal spending is set to increase meaningfully across major economies, and AI-related investment is adding another layer of stimulus. At the same time, most central banks are allowing policy to remain neutral or loose even with inflation still above target, meaning monetary conditions are effectively easy while governments continue to inject money into their economies. When growth is picking up and policy isn’t pushing against it, risk-on markets like crypto have historically performed well.
For crypto, the immediate question is whether Bitcoin can steady and start to unwind the recent decline. The first area of resistance sits around $94,000. If that level is reclaimed, the next major psychological barrier is $100,000, which is where sentiment would likely turn more constructive. If Bitcoin cannot break back above these levels, the market still risks drifting toward the $75,000 region. With flows improving and macro conditions turning more supportive, the backdrop is slowly shifting. Now it’s up to price action to confirm whether a recovery is beginning or whether lower levels still need to be tested.